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Bio

Presentation

Paper

Jacob Carley
University of North Carolina at Asheville

Subject Listing - Atmospheric Sciences
Advisor: Dr. Douglas K. Miller

Saturday, Oral Session 7, Presentation 1, New Hall 118

THE INTEGRATION OF WRF MODEL FORECASTS FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS INTERACTING WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

The research will involve the investigation of mesoscale convective systems (MCS's) and supercell thunderstorms and their interaction with the mountains of Western North Carolina and Eastern Tennessee. The data gathered on these mesoscale events will be used to analyze the forecasting ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) for Western NC. The main objective is to study how the storms interact with the mountains and see if the WRF model forecast can be enhanced based on this study by investigating the feasibility of creating a new model output map. This map would show the probability of MCS systems occurring in Western North Carolina and East Tennessee for each model run. When the characteristics of each storm have been analyzed, each event will be simulated and run on UNCA's WRF model to verify its accuracy. If the WRF produces an accurate forecast then no changes to the model will be made. However, if the WRF provides a poor forecast then the knowledge gained from each of these events will be used to analyze what aspect(s) of the model may have caused the forecasting error. Once the deficiencies in the model have been located, the feasibility of improving the forecast quality of the model will be investigated. In the end, if forecast improvement is deemed feasible, a more accurate forecasting WRF model will ultimately be produced. These analyses will enable future forecasters to predict MCS events in the mountains of Western North Carolina with greater accuracy.

Advisor: Dr. Douglas K. Miller, Associate Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of North Carolina at Asheville, Asheville, NC